CHALLENGES

Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge facing the world today. Rising global temperatures will bring changes in weather patterns, rising sea levels and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The effects will be felt here in the UK and internationally there may be severe problems for people in regions that are particularly vulnerable to change.

Human activities for the last hundred years or so have focused on economic growth, prosperity and achievement of “comfortable” lifestyles. Patterns of production and consumption in nations and societies that has prospered have drawn on technology fueled by energy sources that emit green house gases, resulting in global warming and climate change at accelerated and unpredictable degrees than what the natural evolutionary changes may have resulted. Nations and leaders all over the world recognize the scientific evidence supporting the observed phenomena and agree on the likely changes that may unfold in the years ahead. As a part of responding to the challenge – that is reducing emission of these greenhouse gases to a level that will not result in dangerous climate change – Governments, Multilateral Institutions, Scientists, Civil Society, NGOs, Businesses and others are taking measures at global, regional, national and grass-roots levels. Better understanding of the science of climate change, its variability and likely impacts, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions by introducing or replacing with sustainable energy and climate friendly technologies and practices, and encouraging all stakeholders to assume responsibilities and take necessary actions are among the key issues explored, discussed and supported. The civil society has been consciously engaged in its effort to represent and enable citizens concerns to be reflected and acted on. The Forum for Climate Change Kashmir takes on with this common concern for the people and ecosystems all over the Western Himalaya.

Forum for Climate Change (FCCI) International is a global network of over 360 Non- Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in 85 countries working to promote government and individual action to limit human-induced climate change to ecologically sustainable levels. eIEN South Asia scientists concerned of Global Climate Change issues responded to the emerging challenge and threat of climate change by establishing Forum for Climate Change Kashmir, in 2005.

Over the years, FCCK has contributed toward meaningful and effective participation of all stakeholder groups, particularly in raising the profile of the people most vulnerable and likely to be affected by climate change adverse impacts. FCCK commits to strengthen its efforts and solidarity with people and ecosystems challenged or under threat from such events through raising public awareness, enhancement of capacity to adapt, effective coordination, accountable societies, businesses and governments to ensure mainstreaming of climate change concerns into policies, institutions and processes that particularly relates to the poor.

VISION

The Vision of FCCK is a world striving actively towards the protection of the global climate in a manner that promotes equity and social justice between peoples, sustainable development of all communities, and protection of the global environment. FCCK works to make this vision a reality.

MISSION

FCCK ’s Mission is to support and empower civil society organizations to influence the design and development of an effective global strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ensure its implementation at international, national and local levels in the promotion of equity and sustainable development.

OBJECTIVES

• Prevent dangerous climate change through awareness and capacity building of all governments and citizens worldwide;

• Protect the global climate from dangerous human interference;

• Promote the protection of the global climate from dangerous human interference; and facilitate the radical transformation in the way we use resources, the land and energy;

• Prioritize sustainable development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs;

• Inspire government, business, community, and individual action to this effect;

• Develop an objective understanding of climate change and its causes, and share this information with all people, especially all members;

• Organize, support, inspire and co-ordinate its members to take effective action on climate change, as one global voice, in regions, nations and communities

STRATEGIES

• Actively participate in the international climate change negotiations and all other relevant fora.

• Raising awareness and pushing issues onto the global agenda to influence the climate change decision-making process.

• Placing new climate change, equity and sustainable development issues on the global agenda.

• Contributing to the establishment of global, regional, national and local climate change agendas through mobilizing a genuinely inclusive civil society process at all levels.

• Promoting a nuclear free future.

• Ensuring the gains at the global level are translated into concrete benefits at the national and local level, and implemented effectively and work to benefit of poor people and countries.

• Facilitating a process for developing campaigns and negotiating strategies at the global level.

• Holding global institutions and the private sector accountable for their actions and ensuring they respond to social and environmental concerns.

• Developing and disseminating knowledge that is crucial to addressing the trans-national challenges of climate change.

• Addressing the participatory gap through the creation of inclusive processes.

Climate change: what is climate change?

Climate change affects all of us – and we can all be part of the solution.

Climate refers to the average weather experienced over a long period. This includes temperature, wind and rainfall patterns. The climate of the Earth is not static, and has changed many times in response to a variety of natural causes. Every part of the world one year, one decade or a century differs from another. Till recently such concept was considered only as academic importance, however with the evident of its implications on the very existence of the life, its recognition has been felt. It is really matter of great concern because all most all factors effecting climatic changes are beyond the power of human population. It has shown profound influence in the past on the life and is likely to be so in the future too. Plants, animals, human beings all change with a change of climate. All living species thrive best under definite conditions of various climatic elements. Any great deviation from the normal values would mean death and destruction for the species.

The main human influence on global climate is likely to be emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane. At present, about 6.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ is emitted globally each year, mostly through burning coal, oil and gas for energy. The globally averaged surface temperatures have increased by 0.6 +/- 0.2 degrees Celsius over the 20th century. Climate models project the Earth to warm 1.4 - 5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2100. Sea-level rise is projected to be between 9 and 88 cm by 2100.Average precipitation will increase globally but vary by region and season, such that some areas may see increases or decreases in precipitation overall or during particular times of the year. There will likely be changes in climate variability, and changes in the frequency and intensity of some extreme climatic events.

Climate change is already happening. Globally, the ten hottest years on record have all occurred since the beginning of the 1990s. Current climate models predict that global temperatures could warm from between 1.4 to 5.8^oC over the next 100 years, depending on the amounts of greenhouse gases emitted and the sensitivity of the climate system.

Reservoirs emit greenhouse gases due to the rotting of flooded vegetation and soils and of organic matter flowing into the reservoir from its catchment. The COD Kashmir quotes an estimate that  between 1 to 28 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions comes from reservoirs. In some cases emissions from a reservoir can be equal or greater than those from a coal or gas–fired power station.

What climate change means for KASHMIR ?

Mountain regions are more sensitive to climate change than their rugged topography might suggest. A study reveals that the temperature in the Himalayan region has risen by almost 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 1970's. This shift in climate causes meltdown of snowfalls and glaciers - at the fastest rate in the world (50 feet/15 m per year in northern India) - even in winter, causing icy water to accumulate in lakes hedged by unstable dams of sediment and stone. As the lakes swell, the dams often burst, sending muddy streams down the narrow valleys. In addition to life and property – including bridges, hydro-electric plants and tourist facilities – the flood, laden with massive boulders and sediment, also devastates agricultural lands and irrigation systems in the valleys below.

The 1,000-year-old Hemis Buddhist monastery in Ladakh - Kashmir Province, is one of the world's oldest and most famous. Yet in August, amid rain, floods, mudslides, and spillover from the Indus River, three walls of the monastery in the north India mountains began to crumble. Why all the water - since this region has always been arid and desert-like, with an average annual rainfall of four inches ? If you are one of a group of concerned climatologists and environmentalists, one reason is a rapid rise in the melting rate of the Himalayan glaciers. For the Kashmir, climate change means warmer temperatures, wetter winters and drier summers, less snow. Flooding, droughts, food shortages and the spread of disease are commonly predicted. The social, environmental and economic costs of climate change could be huge. The Himalayas range over six South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan) as well as extending into China and Myanmar. The section lying in Indian territory covers fully or partly eleven states of India on the northern frontier. Therefore, enhanced cooperation with the United Nations is important but insufficient. The South Asian countries concerned must also establish a coordination that is lacking among them as well as with neighbouring regions in order to handle the crisis more effectively. It must start with closer collaboration between scientific and academic institutions who are studying the impact of changing climate on the behavior of glacial lakes in the Himalayan range. A system for the collective monitoring of glaciated regions and for maintaining a reliable alert system embracing all countries affected does not currently exist and must be created. These efforts should be followed by long term intra- and inter-governmental planning involving diverse agencies responsible for conservation, construction, energy, foreign affairs, water, and tourism. They must be directed toward environmentally sound economic growth policies such as renewable energy technologies. Despite the enormity of the task ahead, the reality of Himalayan deglaciation points to the necessity of direct action in order for the South Asian countries to avert catastrophe in the years to come.

FLOODS

8% of landmass of Kashmir region is now prone to floods. 13 number of floods were experienced in a span period from 1973 - 2006 with frequency of occurrence of just 2.5 years with average annual damage of more than 100 cr. Recent floods of 2006 was the major floods Kashmir has experienced from last 50 years.

DROUGHTS

6% of the total area is vulnerable to drought

LANDSLIDES

Landslide constitute now a major natural hazard in Kashmir. 36% of the total area is now vulnerable to avalanches or landslides ; 66 % of 295 Km long Srinagar - Jammu National Highway and 76 % of 434 Km long Srinagar Leh National Highway is vulnerable to avalanches, landslides & mudslides etc.

SNOWFALL

Highest snowfall recorded in the last 30 years in J & K region has been 4.5 m in February-1996 in Banihal and 8.4 m in February-1967 in Gulmarg. However, in 2004 snow accumulation upto 40 ft at several places in different districts. Incidences of landslides / avalanches have been reported at several places.

In Waltango Disaster 278 persons (including 24 security forces/GREF personnel) lost their lives due to snowfall and avalanches. 12, 000 houses (approx) were damaged affecting approximately 2.35 lakhs population. Rabi crop and the plantations have suffered extensive damage. Anantnag, Doda, Pulwama and Poonch are among the worst affected districts.

FOREST FIRES

Today, we have forest cover of about 19.95% as against the recommended forest cover of 60 % in the hill states. The habitat loss caused by these forest fires alone is sure to push the already weak wildlife populations further towards the threshold of extinction. Besides natural causes , apparently timber smugglers, after illegal cutting and timber smuggling from internal forest areas, deliberately set fires to destroy the evidence of the offence. Since 1990-2000 No of forest fires recorded  is 2669 and total area burnt sums up to 140.89 sq kms

TEMPERATURE

High rate of temperature rise. Since the mid-1970s the average air temperature measured at 49 stations has risen by 1.8°F (1°C), with high elevation sites warming the most. This is twice as fast as the 1°F (0.6°C) average warming for the mid-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere (24 to 40°N) over the same time period, and illustrates the high sensitivity of mountain regions to climate change.

Warmest decade in 1,000 years. Ice core records from the valley Glacier indicate that the last decade and last 50 years have been the warmest in 1,000 years. Meteorological records for the Kashmir Valley show that annual temperatures increased 0.4°F (0.16°C) per decade and winter temperatures increased 0.6°F (0.32°C) per decade from 1955 to 1996.

GLACIER RETREATING

Glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating at an average rate of 50 feet (15 m) per year, consistent with the rapid warming recorded at Himalayan climate stations since the 1970s. Winter stream flow for the valley glacier basin has increased 75% since 1966 and local winter temperatures have warmed, suggesting increased glacier melting in winter.

The world is likely to experience the warmest year on record in 2007.

There is a 60% chance that the average surface temperature will match or exceed the current record from 1998. The forecasters also revealed that 2006 saw the highest average temperature since records began in 1914. The global surface temperature is projected to be 0.54C (0.97F) above the long-term average of 14C (57C), beating the current record of 0.52C (0.94F), which was set in 1998.