FCC International is a network of
over 125 Non- Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in 56 countries
working to promote government and individual action to limit
human-induced climate change to ecologically sustainable levels.
eIEN South Asia scientists concerned of Global Climate Change issues
responded to the emerging challenge and threat of climate change by
establishing Forum for Climate Change Kashmir, in 2005 , to provide
advice on recognizing potential dangers and immediate threats of
Global Climate Change to the regional populace and strong advocacy
for economically depressed Himalayan communities who are minor
contributors to global warming.
Key Findings: Climate Change
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Approximately
every five years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
releases an assessment of the state of climate change science.
STARTING
POINT: WG I FINDINGS
WG II
takes the following key findings of WG I as its starting point:
The globally
averaged surface temperatures have increased by 0.6 +/- 0.2 degrees
Celsius over the 20th century.
For the range of
scenarios developed for IPCC assessment (assuming no major reduction
in greenhouse gas emissions), climate models project the Earth to
warm 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2100.
Sea-level rise is
projected to be between 9 and 88 cm by 2100.
Warming will vary
by region.
Average
precipitation will increase globally but vary by region and season,
such that some areas may see increases or decreases in precipitation
overall or during particular times of the year.
There will likely
also be changes in climate variability, and changes in the frequency
and intensity of some extreme climatic events.
The WG II Summary
for Policymakers describes the current state of understanding of the
impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability to climate change and
associated uncertainties. The available scientific literature does
not yet include impact studies that consider the upper end of the
projected range of warming.
KEY TERMS
Several concepts are used consistently throughout the IPCC
assessment and are particularly relevant to Working Group II:
SENSITIVITY --
refers to the degree to which a system will be affected
(beneficially or adversely) by climate variability and change.
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
-- refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate
variability, extremes, and change in order to (a) moderate potential
damages, (b) take advantage of the opportunities, and/or (c) cope
with the consequences of change. Human adaptive capacity and coping
ability depend on factors such as wealth, technology, education,
information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and
management capabilities.
VULNERABILITY --
refers to the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable
to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability varies with
location, time, and social, economic and environmental conditions.
Vulnerability is also a function of the character, magnitude, and
rate of climatic variation to which a system is exposed as well as
that system's sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
KEY FINDINGS
1. Recent regional climate changes, particularly temperature
increases, have already affected many physical and biological
systems.
Examples of
observed changes in response to 20th century warming include
shrinking glaciers, thawing permafrost, earlier break-up of river
and lake ice, lengthening of mid- to high-latitude growing seasons,
poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges, declines
of some animal and plant populations, and earlier tree flowering,
insect emergence and egg-laying in birds.
Many long-term
studies from many types of environments have documented changes in
physical and ecological systems that correlate with observed
temperature changes. The probability that the observed changes in
the expected direction could occur by chance alone is negligible.
While other
factors such as land use change and pollution also act on
environmental systems and can make causal attribution difficult in
individual cases, WG II experts conclude with high confidence that
the observed regional changes in temperature have had "discernible
impacts on many physical and biological systems."
2. There are
preliminary indications that some human systems have been affected
by recent increases in floods and droughts.
The relative
impacts of climate-related extreme events on human systems are
difficult to disentangle from other factors such as land use changes
and population shifts. This makes it challenging to quantify these
climate-related impacts.
There has been a
recent increase in the frequency of floods and droughts in some
regions, and they clearly have had significant social and economic
impacts. If extreme events increase in frequency, vulnerable human
systems could see increasing damages.
3. Natural
systems are vulnerable to climate change, and some will be
irreversibly damaged.
Glaciers, coral
reefs, atolls, mangroves, boreal and tropical forests, polar and
alpine ecosystems, prairie wetlands, and remnant native grasslands
can be especially vulnerable to climate change because of limited
adaptive capacity. Some natural systems are at risk of significant
and irreversible damage.
While some
species may increase in abundance or range, climate change will
increase existing risks of extinction of already threatened or
vulnerable species and biodiversity loss.
The degree or
extent of damage will increase with the magnitude and rate of
climate change.
4. Many human
systems are sensitive to climate change, and some are vulnerable.
Human systems
most sensitive to climate variability and change are water
resources, agriculture, forestry, coastal zones and fisheries, human
settlements, energy, industry, insurance and other financial
services, and human health.
Examples of
projected adverse impacts include reductions in crop yields in most
tropical and sub-tropical regions; decreased water availability in
many regions that already experience water scarcity; an increase in
certain diseases, heat stress mortality and risk of flooding; and
increased energy demand for cooling during warmer summers.
Examples of
projected beneficial impacts include increases in crop yields in
some mid-latitude regions; increased water availability in some
water scarce regions; reduced winter mortality in mid- and
high-latitude regions; and reduced energy demand for heating during
warmer winters.
5. Projected
changes in climate extremes could have major consequences.
The vulnerability
of human societies to droughts, floods, heat waves, avalanches, and
windstorms is demonstrated by the damage, hardship, and death caused
by these extreme events.
While changes in
the frequency or intensity of these climatic extremes cannot yet be
predicted with certainty, some extremes are projected to increase
with global warming. Hence it can be expected that the severity of
impacts will also increase.
The frequency and
intensity of extreme low temperature events is expected to decrease
in the future with some positive and negative impacts.
The poor are
expected to disproportionately bear the burden of future changes in
climate extremes.
6. The potential
for large-scale and possibly irreversible impacts poses risks that
have yet to be reliably quantified.
The possibility
of large-scale (continental or global), irreversible changes in
Earth systems resulting in widespread and sustained impacts cannot
be ruled out. These possibilities are scenario-dependent, and the
range of possibilities is yet to be fully evaluated.
Examples include
a significant slowing of ocean circulation that transports warm
water to the North Atlantic; large reductions in the Greenland and
West Antarctic ice sheets; much faster warming than expected due to
positive feedback effects; and releases of additional greenhouse
gases from permafrost regions and coastal sediments.
While these types
of changes are currently thought to be
low-probability/high-consequence events with widespread and lasting
effects, their probability of occurring increases with the
magnitude, rate, and duration of global warming.
7. Adaptation is
a necessary strategy at all scales to complement climate change
mitigation efforts.
The IPCC states
"[a]daptation has the potential to reduce adverse impacts of climate
change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will incur costs and will
not prevent all damages."
Human and natural
systems will adapt autonomously to some degree and in some
instances, but can and should be supplemented with planned
adaptation, especially where options for autonomous adaptation are
limited.
Adaptation to
current climate variability and extremes can serve as a guide for
future adaptation and can produce present-day benefits. There are
constraints, however, on realizing the full range of potential
adaptation options. Also, maladaptations (e.g., development in
risk-prone areas) that increase present and future damage potentials
can and already do occur.
8. Those with the
least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most
vulnerable.
There is
potential to enhance the adaptive capacity in both developed and
developing countries, but the least developed, poorest countries are
typically least endowed with the attributes that facilitate adaptive
capacity. (See * Key term* above.)
The resulting
vulnerability is therefore greatest in these least developed
countries (or poorest communities within more developed countries).
While many
methodological challenges and data limitations inhibit highly
confident economic impact summaries, WG II experts conclude that
global warming would generally produce net economic losses in many
developing countries and a mix of economic gains and losses in
developed countries, thus widening the disparity in well-being
between the two. In both cases, the losses would become increasingly
dominant with larger temperature increases.
While dependent
on many factors besides climate change, IPCC experts expect that
even for only a small degree of warming, more people would be harmed
than benefited by climate change.
9.Adaptation,
sustainable development, and enhancement of equity can be mutually
reinforcing.
IPCC experts
conclude, "[p]olicies that lessen pressures on resources, improve
management of environmental risks, and increase the welfare of the
poorest members of society can simultaneously advance sustainable
development and equity, enhance adaptive capacity, and reduce
vulnerability to climate and other stresses."
Including climate
risks in national and international development plans can help
address multiple stresses and goals.
REMAINING GAPS
IN OUR UNDERSTANDING
Much progress has been made over the last five years in our
understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation and
vulnerability, but many uncertainties and even fundamental
understanding about certain types of impacts and about adaptation
options remain. This is particularly true in developing countries
where impacts studies are still spotty and/or limited by
scientific-technical capacity.
Among the high-priority research areas listed by WG II are the
following:
Quantitative
assessment of
sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and
vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change.
Understanding of
low-probability/high-consequence events and of thresholds where
major system changes could be triggered.
Understanding
dynamic responses of ecosystems to multiple stresses at different
scales.
Development of
basic approaches to, and understanding of, adaptation responses,
their effectiveness, costs and benefits, and identification of
opportunities and obstacles to potential response options.
Assessment of
potential impacts for the full range of climate change scenarios,
particularly for non-market goods and services.
Better tools
for integrated assessments, including risk assessment and the
consequences of different policy decisions.
Development of
better approaches to integrate climate change, impacts, and
adaptation information into decision-making processes, risk
management, and sustainable development initiatives.
Improvement of
long-term monitoring systems to better understand climate change
impacts and other stresses on natural and human systems.
eIEN South Asia
Western Himalaya Kashmir
FCC KASHMIR
A cause supported by 125 non-governmental organizations in 56 countries.
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FCC
eIEN South Asia
Western Himalaya Kashmir
FCC International is a network of over 125 Non- Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in 56 countries working to promote government and individual action to limit human-induced climate change to ecologically sustainable levels. eIEN South Asia scientists concerned of Global Climate Change issues responded to the emerging challenge and threat of climate change by establishing Forum for Climate Change Kashmir, in 2005 , to provide advice on recognizing potential dangers and immediate threats of Global Climate Change to the regional populace and strong advocacy for economically depressed Himalayan communities who are minor contributors to global warming.
FCC KASHMIR Reports
Glaciers in the Himalayas melting at rapid rate
Global Warming : We have a role
Environmental Effects of Ozone Depletion (Interim Report)
Key Findings: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
The Economist vs the Green Mantra
Status of the Glacier Research in HKH Region
Key Findings: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Approximately every five years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases an assessment of the state of climate change science.
STARTING POINT: WG I FINDINGS
WG II takes the following key findings of WG I as its starting point:
The globally averaged surface temperatures have increased by 0.6 +/- 0.2 degrees Celsius over the 20th century.
For the range of scenarios developed for IPCC assessment (assuming no major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions), climate models project the Earth to warm 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2100.
Sea-level rise is projected to be between 9 and 88 cm by 2100.
Warming will vary by region.
Average precipitation will increase globally but vary by region and season, such that some areas may see increases or decreases in precipitation overall or during particular times of the year.
There will likely also be changes in climate variability, and changes in the frequency and intensity of some extreme climatic events.
The WG II Summary for Policymakers describes the current state of understanding of the impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability to climate change and associated uncertainties. The available scientific literature does not yet include impact studies that consider the upper end of the projected range of warming.
KEY TERMS
Several concepts are used consistently throughout the IPCC assessment and are particularly relevant to Working Group II:
SENSITIVITY -- refers to the degree to which a system will be affected (beneficially or adversely) by climate variability and change.
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY -- refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate variability, extremes, and change in order to (a) moderate potential damages, (b) take advantage of the opportunities, and/or (c) cope with the consequences of change. Human adaptive capacity and coping ability depend on factors such as wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and management capabilities.
VULNERABILITY -- refers to the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability varies with location, time, and social, economic and environmental conditions. Vulnerability is also a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climatic variation to which a system is exposed as well as that system's sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
KEY FINDINGS
1. Recent regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases, have already affected many physical and biological systems.
Examples of observed changes in response to 20th century warming include shrinking glaciers, thawing permafrost, earlier break-up of river and lake ice, lengthening of mid- to high-latitude growing seasons, poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges, declines of some animal and plant populations, and earlier tree flowering, insect emergence and egg-laying in birds.
Many long-term studies from many types of environments have documented changes in physical and ecological systems that correlate with observed temperature changes. The probability that the observed changes in the expected direction could occur by chance alone is negligible.
While other factors such as land use change and pollution also act on environmental systems and can make causal attribution difficult in individual cases, WG II experts conclude with high confidence that the observed regional changes in temperature have had "discernible impacts on many physical and biological systems."
2. There are preliminary indications that some human systems have been affected by recent increases in floods and droughts.
The relative impacts of climate-related extreme events on human systems are difficult to disentangle from other factors such as land use changes and population shifts. This makes it challenging to quantify these climate-related impacts.
There has been a recent increase in the frequency of floods and droughts in some regions, and they clearly have had significant social and economic impacts. If extreme events increase in frequency, vulnerable human systems could see increasing damages.
3. Natural systems are vulnerable to climate change, and some will be irreversibly damaged.
Glaciers, coral reefs, atolls, mangroves, boreal and tropical forests, polar and alpine ecosystems, prairie wetlands, and remnant native grasslands can be especially vulnerable to climate change because of limited adaptive capacity. Some natural systems are at risk of significant and irreversible damage.
While some species may increase in abundance or range, climate change will increase existing risks of extinction of already threatened or vulnerable species and biodiversity loss.
The degree or extent of damage will increase with the magnitude and rate of climate change.
4. Many human systems are sensitive to climate change, and some are vulnerable.
Human systems most sensitive to climate variability and change are water resources, agriculture, forestry, coastal zones and fisheries, human settlements, energy, industry, insurance and other financial services, and human health.
Examples of projected adverse impacts include reductions in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions; decreased water availability in many regions that already experience water scarcity; an increase in certain diseases, heat stress mortality and risk of flooding; and increased energy demand for cooling during warmer summers.
Examples of projected beneficial impacts include increases in crop yields in some mid-latitude regions; increased water availability in some water scarce regions; reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-latitude regions; and reduced energy demand for heating during warmer winters.
5. Projected changes in climate extremes could have major consequences.
The vulnerability of human societies to droughts, floods, heat waves, avalanches, and windstorms is demonstrated by the damage, hardship, and death caused by these extreme events.
While changes in the frequency or intensity of these climatic extremes cannot yet be predicted with certainty, some extremes are projected to increase with global warming. Hence it can be expected that the severity of impacts will also increase.
The frequency and intensity of extreme low temperature events is expected to decrease in the future with some positive and negative impacts.
The poor are expected to disproportionately bear the burden of future changes in climate extremes.
6. The potential for large-scale and possibly irreversible impacts poses risks that have yet to be reliably quantified.
The possibility of large-scale (continental or global), irreversible changes in Earth systems resulting in widespread and sustained impacts cannot be ruled out. These possibilities are scenario-dependent, and the range of possibilities is yet to be fully evaluated.
Examples include a significant slowing of ocean circulation that transports warm water to the North Atlantic; large reductions in the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets; much faster warming than expected due to positive feedback effects; and releases of additional greenhouse gases from permafrost regions and coastal sediments.
While these types of changes are currently thought to be low-probability/high-consequence events with widespread and lasting effects, their probability of occurring increases with the magnitude, rate, and duration of global warming.
7. Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to complement climate change mitigation efforts.
The IPCC states "[a]daptation has the potential to reduce adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will incur costs and will not prevent all damages."
Human and natural systems will adapt autonomously to some degree and in some instances, but can and should be supplemented with planned adaptation, especially where options for autonomous adaptation are limited.
Adaptation to current climate variability and extremes can serve as a guide for future adaptation and can produce present-day benefits. There are constraints, however, on realizing the full range of potential adaptation options. Also, maladaptations (e.g., development in risk-prone areas) that increase present and future damage potentials can and already do occur.
8. Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.
There is potential to enhance the adaptive capacity in both developed and developing countries, but the least developed, poorest countries are typically least endowed with the attributes that facilitate adaptive capacity. (See * Key term* above.)
The resulting vulnerability is therefore greatest in these least developed countries (or poorest communities within more developed countries).
While many methodological challenges and data limitations inhibit highly confident economic impact summaries, WG II experts conclude that global warming would generally produce net economic losses in many developing countries and a mix of economic gains and losses in developed countries, thus widening the disparity in well-being between the two. In both cases, the losses would become increasingly dominant with larger temperature increases.
While dependent on many factors besides climate change, IPCC experts expect that even for only a small degree of warming, more people would be harmed than benefited by climate change.
9.Adaptation, sustainable development, and enhancement of equity can be mutually reinforcing.
IPCC experts conclude, "[p]olicies that lessen pressures on resources, improve management of environmental risks, and increase the welfare of the poorest members of society can simultaneously advance sustainable development and equity, enhance adaptive capacity, and reduce vulnerability to climate and other stresses."
Including climate risks in national and international development plans can help address multiple stresses and goals.
REMAINING GAPS IN OUR UNDERSTANDING
Much progress has been made over the last five years in our understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, but many uncertainties and even fundamental understanding about certain types of impacts and about adaptation options remain. This is particularly true in developing countries where impacts studies are still spotty and/or limited by scientific-technical capacity.
Among the high-priority research areas listed by WG II are the following:
Quantitative assessment of sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change.
Understanding of low-probability/high-consequence events and of thresholds where major system changes could be triggered.
Understanding dynamic responses of ecosystems to multiple stresses at different scales.
Development of basic approaches to, and understanding of, adaptation responses, their effectiveness, costs and benefits, and identification of opportunities and obstacles to potential response options.
Assessment of potential impacts for the full range of climate change scenarios, particularly for non-market goods and services.
Better tools for integrated assessments, including risk assessment and the consequences of different policy decisions.
Development of better approaches to integrate climate change, impacts, and adaptation information into decision-making processes, risk management, and sustainable development initiatives.
Improvement of long-term monitoring systems to better understand climate change impacts and other stresses on natural and human systems.